miércoles, 31 de agosto de 2011

PEOR TODAVÍA EN LIBIA Y SIRIA Y AFGANISTÁN Y PAKISTÁN

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Council on Foreign RelationsDaily News Brief
August 31, 2011

Top of the Agenda: Divisions Among Libyan Rebels

A week after Libyan rebels moved into Tripoli, the capital is loosely divided (NYT) among different groups of rebel fighters with links to various geographic areas of Libya. There is no unifying military leader in the city and the top civilian leaders of the rebels' National Transitional Council (NTC) are not yet on the scene, contributing to a growing power vacuum.

There is also a dispute within the NTC about who has temporary authority over the Libyan Investment Authority (FT), the oil-rich country's $65 billion sovereign wealth fund.

Despite growing divisions, rebel leaders rejected a United Nations offer (BBC) for an international peacekeeping force to help the NTC with the upcoming political transition.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for embattled leader Muammar al-Qaddafi rejected the NTC's ultimatum (Reuters) that Qaddafi loyalists in holdout cities surrender by Saturday or face military action. The announcement came as the NTC's military leader (al-Jazeera) in Tripoli, Abdelhakim Belhaj, claimed that Qaddafi's son, Saadi, had called him to surrender.

Analysis

This TIME photo essay documents the challenges the Libyan rebels have faced in their battle for Tripoli.

As rebels try to strengthen their hold on Tripoli, the odds of a peaceful, democratic transfer of power in Libya are long and the need for ongoing international intervention is very likely, says CFR's Robert Danin.

In this Financial Times editorial, CFR President Richard N. Haass says international assistance, and probably an international force, is likely to be needed for some time to restore and maintain order in Libya.

MIDDLE EAST

Amnesty Documents Syria Prison Torture

A report by Amnesty International documents the cases of eighty-eight anti-government protesters who weretortured and died (al-Jazeera) in Syrian prisons since demonstrations began earlier this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions (WSJ) on two Syrian diplomats, in an effort to further isolate President Bashar al-Assad.

A new Syrian regime could threaten Iran's support of Hezbollah and deprive Tehran of its one ally in the region, so it is counseling the Assad government to hang tough, says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour in this CFR Interview.

PACIFIC RIM

Australia's High Court Blocks Refugee Swap

Australia's High Court blocked Prime Minister Julia Gillard's plan to send eight hundred asylum seekers to Malaysia (SydneyMorningHerald) in exchange for four thousand of its refugees over four years.

AUSTRALIA: The Australian attorney general called WikiLeaks' release of a new batch of over one hundred and thirty-thousand confidential U.S. diplomatic cables "incredibly irresponsible" (Australian) for failing to redact the names of Australians linked to Yemeni terror groups.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

August Deadliest Month in Afghan War

August was the deadliest month for U.S. forces in the nearly ten-year war in Afghanistan. Sixty-six U.S. troops (AP) were killed, putting pressure on President Barack Obama to accelerate the U.S. drawdown.

This CFR Timeline examines the events that precipitated the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the history of the war.

PAKISTAN: A car bomb exploded next to a mosque in the southwestern city of Quetta, killing eleven people (Dawn) celebrating the end of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan.

AFRICA

South African Growth Slows

South Africa's economy grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter, its slowest rate (BusinessDay) in nearly two years. The manufacturing, mining, and agriculture sectors all contracted, putting further pressure on the country's 25 percent unemployment rate.

SOMALIA: The leader of the al-Shabaab Islamist militant group, Sheikh Muktar Abu Zubeir, criticized some of his fighters for retreating from the capital of Mogadishu last week, saying he and a "faithful group" (Reuters) of fighters would continue attacks against the Somali government and African Union peacekeeping troops.

This CFR Backgrounder provides a profile of al-Shabaab, based in southern Somalia.

AMERICAS

Irene Does $7 Billion in Damage

Damage caused by flooding from Hurricane Irene along the east coast of the United States is expected to costupward of $7 billion (NYT), much of which will not be covered by insurance. North Carolina and New York will be eligible to receive extra federal funds.

PERU: Credit rating agency Standard and Poor's raised the country's foreign debt (MercoPress) by one notch to BBB, saying it expected continued economic expansion under recently elected President Ollanta Humala.

EUROPE

Suicide Attack in Chechen Capital

Three suicide bombers blew themselves up by government buildings in Grozny, the capital of Russia's southwestern Chechnya region, killing eight (DeutscheWelle) and wounding twenty. Russia has faced an ongoing Chechen Islamist insurgency in the post-Soviet period.

Chechnya has been plagued by two wars and an ongoing insurgency since the fall of the Soviet Union. In recent years, Chechen militants have escalated attacks in the North Caucasus and revived bombings in Moscow, explains this CFR Backgrounder.

ITALY: Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right government faced public anger by labor unions and the opposition over a decision to revise austerity measures (FT) agreed on last month, which could undermine fragile eurozone markets.

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lunes, 29 de agosto de 2011

"ESTABILIZAR EL PAÍS", URGE JIBRIL

Siguen los combates en el centro de Trípoli, sigue sin aparecer Gadafi. Y siguen las incertidumbres acerca de los rebeldes. A pesar de ayudas externas como la del Ministro de Defensa británico con sus servicios de inteligencia. No siempre se entienden, en medio de sus acciones bélicas. Apenas tienen un liderazgo fragmentado y opaco y –peor todavía- no se sabe qué intenciones e influencia tienen los islamistas en sus mandos.

¿Qué harán los rebeldes con los del régimen, cuando llegue la victoria? ¿Qué harán con las tribus, que tanto cuentan en lal vida del país? ¿Y con los negros, importados por Gadafi para explotarlos como obreros y como soldados? ¿Qué decidirán los centros de poder otánico que tanto han hecho por ellos?

El 25 de agosto, conducida por la Fuerza Aérea Británica, la OTAN lanzó una campaña de bombardeos a cuarteles del régimen en Sirte para ayudar al avance de los rebeldes. ¿Cuántas “muertes amigas” suman estas acciones a tantas otras similares? El líder de los rebeldes, Jibril, pide a la comunidad internacional descongelar los depósitos libios: necesita “estabilizar al país”. Pero el dinero no puede crear por sí solo gobernantes responsables, ciudadanos libres, una cultura política democrática. ¿Qué modalidades nuevas asumirá, una vez caído Gadafi, la intervención internacional? ¿Qué pasará con el precio del petróleo crudo, que en Libia tiene tan alta calidad?

Ante la guerra civil de Libia, Sarko se apura a confirmar r personalmente la iniciativa europea. Ya había sido el primero en recibir al “Primer Ministro” del “Consejo Nacional de Transición”, Mahomud Yibril, y en reconocer su autoridad. En el Eliseo, escenario de desplantes despectivos de Gadafi en tiempos de paz. El 24 de agosto no sólo recibió a Yibril sino que se permitió anunciar una conferencia internacional para el 1 de setiembre con los países integrantes de la coalición, incluyendo a EEUU, y con Rusia, China, India y la UNO. Aunque sepa que las denuncias de asesinatos y represalias contra civiles y militares se dan tanto respecto a los de Gadafi como respecto a los rebeldes. Tanto, que el propio jefe del “Gobierno” de los rebeldes ha amenazado con dimitir como protesta por los “actos de venganza” cometidos por los suyos.

Sarkozy sabe lo que hace. Ahora que DSK ya no es amenaza para ganarle las presidenciales tras su imperativo erótico en el hotel neoyorkino que le ha impuesto el abandono del FMI y, peor todavía, la pérdida de su candidatura a la Presidencia, que se daba por segura. Apenas liberado de su responsabilidad penal, DSK declaró que estaba deseando volver a su país, donde se expresaría más detenidamente sobre su “pesadilla”. No ha sido así. Se ha ido a Washington para despedirse de los del FMI – o para hacer gimnasia erótica con alguna dirigente o funcionaria de tan augusta institución. Mientras tanto, las encuestas le dicen que 4 de cada 5 franceses no desean que vuelva a la carrera por las primarias: 77% a la izquierda, 89% a la derecha. Y si el PS ganara el año próximo las presidenciales, un 56% no quiere que DSK entre en el gobierno. Y en Francia le espera todavía la demanda por lo civil por tentativa de violación en el 2003 presentada por la periodista y novelista Tristane Barron cuya madre también socialista ya lanzó su anatema contra el trato que a ella le dio DSK en el lecho que un día compartieron.

Una vez que por fin DSK retorne a París ¿le preguntarán por aquel curioso anuncio -que reveló a periodistas- de una conspiración contra él armada por el miembro ruso del FMI a impulsos de Putin… y de Sarko? Sería una diversión más para el actual Presidente de Francia. Y un problema irresoluble para el partido del ex candidato socialista a la Presidenia.

INCURABLES VANGUARDINOS




"El huracán se rinde a Nueva York",

dice el titular más destacado en Portada de La Vanguardia de hoy, en letras amarillas. sobre un fondo azul que sólo deja ver los perfiles ensombrecidos de la ciudad y algunas ventanas
iluminadas.

"El 'Irene' paraliza Manhattan, pero afloja y causa menos daños de lo esperado"

añade el subtítulo.

Siempre soñadores, los vanguardinos, sobre todo tratándose de la ciudad que más aman.



domingo, 28 de agosto de 2011

SARKO CON LIBIA

Will Sarkozy get a statue in Tripoli?

French President Nicolas Sarkozy shakes hand with the number two in Libya's NTC Mahmoud Jibril after a joint press conference in Paris on 24 August 2011French President Nicolas Sarkozy took the lead in the international response to the Libyan uprising

Sometime when the fighting in Libya has subsided, when Col Muammar Gaddafi has been hunted down, when the National Transitional Council has started running the country, when security and essential services have been restored, there may be time for reflection.

How was this great uprooting of a dictator achieved? There will be huge pride inside the country that the people carved out their own destiny, that this rebellion was made in Libya rather than in the think-tanks of Washington. Yes, it was an Arab uprising, but it could not have succeeded without outside help.

In the final days - as we shall learn - Nato used drones, bombers, helicopters, electronic interference and special forces on the ground "painting" targets for the attack aircraft as the rebels closed in on the capital, Tripoli.

But if ever new statues are erected in Tripoli, French President Nicholas Sarkozy may just find a niche or a plinth. For internationally, this was his war. The French president is never shy in playing the leading role in any situation. Over Libya, he was roused by the activist-philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy.

The argument was simple. The West faced a moment of choice. A moral choice. It could stand by, as it had in Rwanda, and watch a massacre in Benghazi or it could intervene.

Intervention, however, was out of favour. President Bush and Iraq and the intractable Afghanistan had dulled appetites to intervene and carve out new democracies. But Europe - believing so strongly in soft power - had failed utterly in its own backyard at Srebrenica. Mr Sarkozy did not want another failure on his doorstep.

Blank cheque

So the French president, full of righteous certainty, attended a summit in Brussels determined to get backing for a no-fly zone. He garnered little support apart from UK Prime Minister David Cameron.

The words "no-fly zone" didn't even make it to the final communique. Europe believed, somehow, that sanctions and the opprobrium of the international community would sway Col Gaddafi.

Crucially, the Germans were against intervention and the Americans were decidedly lukewarm.

But Mr Sarkozy and the British worked on a clever UN resolution that got the Americans on-side and neutralised the opposition of the Chinese and the Russians.

Not only did they win the authorisation to enforce a "no fly-zone", but also, and crucially, the power to protect civilians.

This loosely drafted resolution enabled Nato to become, in effect, the air force for the rebels. Attacking Gaddafi's compound could always be justified as protecting civilians. It may be a long time before nations are given by the UN such a blank cheque again.

During all of this, President Sarkozy did not play the European leader. He acted as a powerful head of a nation state, free to act in what he saw as his country's interest and that of the international community.

It exposed the weakness of Europe in international affairs. Brussels was left on the sidelines, hosting conferences about future trade relationships with North Africa.

So the French president, without consulting his European partners, broke ranks and recognised the National Transitional Council (NTC).

After the UN resolution had been passed, even David Cameron was surprised to learn that French planes were already over Benghazi.

US role

The French took the lead but, in truth, the American military was needed in the opening rounds. Only they had the cruise missiles that could take out Col Gaddafi's air defence system. In the later stages, only the Americans had the drones that pinpointed for the rebels where the Gaddafi forces were.

But US President Barack Obama did not want American forces involved in another war. He wanted the Europeans to take a lead and so put down a marker for the future.

Europe would have to be the main actor in its own backyard.

Privately, at first, many European officials moaned about the French and British action. It was tough getting Nato to assume responsibility for running the operation. There were tensions. The Germans remained totally unconvinced. At the UN, they had stood with China and Russia and abstained.

In May, I had attended in Berlin a briefing with one of the most powerful figures in Germany. The military action was wrong and ill-thought through, he insisted. We did not understand Libya, he went on.

The relationship between tribes was complicated. Col Gaddafi had support in the country. If Nato's action failed to dislodge the Libyan leader, there would be the temptation to put Western troops on the ground.

It is of course true that some of those doubts may prove to be well founded. But as Libyans taste the elixir of freedom, Germany will debate whether it made the right choice.

Enigma

The Libyan operation has strengthened the Anglo-French relationship. Sarkozy and Cameron like each other. Both leaders believe the EU is a long long way from being able to take decisive action as a bloc.

When it comes to military action, the French and the British are indisputably the key players in Europe. Once the intervention began, the British along the French shouldered the burden of the operation.

Inside France, there is pride at the outcome. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe summed it up on seeing the liberation of Tripoli: "This is a subject of great satisfaction. France took risks, calculated risks, but the cause was just."

This time, Western intervention was judged to be on the side of the people of an Arab country and in tune with the West's values of freedom and democracy.

A final thought. It is part of the enigma of Sarkozy. He can act boldly and independently, even rashly. Yet when it comes to the eurozone, he is prepared to push for economic government that will weaken France's decision-making over its own economy.

As someone told me in France recently, he backs greater European unity as long as France - and Germany - remains in the driving seat.

But if the scenes of jubilation in Tripoli have a single western author, it is Nicolas Sarkozy.


"ARAB SPRING HAS CREATED 'INTELLIGENCE DISASTER'"

Arab spring has created 'intelligence disaster', warns former CIA boss

Michael Scheuer says rendition should be brought back as lack of intelligence has left UK and US unable to monitor militants

Michael Scheuer
Michael Scheuer, the former head of the CIA unit in charge of pursuing Osama bin Laden, said the Arab spring had 'delighted al-Qaida'. Photograph: Murdo Macleod

The Arab spring has "delighted al-Qaida" and caused "an intelligence disaster" for the US and Britain, the former head of the CIA unit in charge of pursuing Osama bin Laden has warned.

Speaking at the Edinburgh international book festival, Michael Scheuer said: "The help we were getting from the Egyptian intelligence service, less so from the Tunisians but certainly from the Libyans and Lebanese, has dried up – either because of resentment at our governments stabbing their political leaders in the back, or because those who worked for the services have taken off in fear of being incarcerated or worse.

"The amount of work that has devolved on US and British services is enormous, and the result is blindness in our ability to watch what's going on among militants."

The Arab spring, he said, was "an intelligence disaster for the US and for Britain, and other European services".

Scheuer headed the Bin Laden unit at the CIA from 1996 to 1999, and worked as special adviser to its chief from 2001 to 2004. The author of a biography of Bin Laden, he now teaches on the peace and security affairs programme at the University of Georgetown.

He said: "The rendition programme must come back – the people we have in custody now are pretty long in the tooth, in terms of the information they can provide in interrogations.

"The Arab spring has been a disaster for us in terms of intelligence gathering, and we now are blind both because of the Arab spring and because there is nothing with which to replace the rendition programme."