miércoles, 5 de octubre de 2011

ESCENARIOS DE CRISIS MÚLTIPLES


Top of the Agenda: China, Russia Veto UN Resolution on Syria

China and Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that sought to condemn the regime (al-Jazeera) of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for its ongoing, violent crackdown against anti-government protesters.

Russia refused to support the measure because it included targeted sanctions (NYT) against the Syrian government--Russia's main Middle East ally. Europe and the United States significantly diluted the wording and extent of the sanctions in the hopes of gaining Russia's vote, but with little effect. The Russian UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, warned that the resolution could have provoked a Syrian civil war.

The French ambassador to the UN expressed frustration at the veto, and said Russia and China's actions showed "disdain" for the Syrian people. Similarly, Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the UN, called the move an "outrage" (WSJ) and walked out of the Security Council chamber in protest.

The UN estimates that over 2,700 people (BBC) have been killed by the Syrian government's crackdown over the past six months.

Analysis

In his blog, The Arab Street, CFR's Ed Husain argues that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, however distasteful, still remains the West's least worst option in Syria.

After months of failed attempts at unity, Syria's fractious opposition forces have come together in the Syrian National Council, an umbrella organization announced in Istanbul on Sunday, whose aim is to help bring down the Assad regime, writes the Financial Times' Roula Khalaf.

The upheaval in Arab states presents opportunities and pitfalls for Iran in the Mideast. The best way for Washington to counter a possible Iranian rise is to cultivate relationships with Arab publics, explains this CFR Analysis Brief.

New Interactive Guide Surveys Iran's Regime and Nuclear Program

Crisis Guide: Iran, the latest multimedia feature in CFR's Emmy award-winning series, uses expert interviews, interactive timelines, graphs, and images to trace Iran's history, examine its oil-driven economy, and survey its nuclear program. View the Guide

MIDDLE EAST

Iraq Will Deny Immunity to U.S. Troops

The Iraqi government reached an agreement to allow some U.S. soldiers to stay (al-Jazeera) in Iraq as military trainers after 2011, but they will no longer be granted immunity if they commit a crime.

PACIFIC RIM

Russia Holds Suspected Chinese Spy

Since last year, the Russian government has detained a Chinese agent accused of bribery in an attempt to obtain information about the Soviet-era S300 surface-to-air missile system (BBC).

CHINA: U.S. House Speaker John Boehner spoke out against proposed Senate legislation that would sanction China for its undervalued currency (Bloomberg), while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said China's currency policy was hurting the global economic recovery.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

U.S. Officials Met with Haqqani Network

U.S. officials this summer secretly met with leaders of the Taliban- and al-Qaeda-allied Haqqani network to draw them into negotiations (WSJ) amid a phased U.S. military drawdown from Afghanistan. The United States recently accused Pakistan of supporting the militant group in attacks on U.S. targets.

Don Rassler and Vahid Brown of West Point's Combating Terrorism Center report on the role of the Haqqani network in the evolution of a global al-Qaeda, with roots in the political context of Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 1970s.

AFGHANISTAN: After signing bilateral strategic agreements with India that will see New Delhi help train Afghan security forces, President Hamid Karzai sought to reassure Pakistan (AFP) that it was Afghanistan's "twin brother" and would not be sidelined by the deal.

AFRICA

Al-Shabaab Vows More Attacks on Mogadishu

Somalia's militant Islamist separatist group al-Shabaab vowed "routine" attacks (Mail&Guardian) against the interim Somali government in Mogadishu following a suicide car bombing near a government building that killed at least seventy people and wounded over one hundred others.

This CFR Backgrounder offers a profile of the al-Shabaab Islamist militant organization based in southern Somalia.

SOUTH AFRICA: Archbishop Emeritus and anti-apartheid activist Desmond Tutu lashed out (IOL) at South Africa's ruling African National Congress for denying the Dalai Lama a visa to visit the country, calling it worse than the apartheid government.

AMERICAS

Fed Downgrades Outlook; Considers Further Action

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted a slower pace of economic growth in the coming quarters. He said the Fed was prepared to further ease monetary policy (WashPost) following last month's Operation Twist, which will shift $400 billion of the Fed's holdings into long-term bonds.

In the wake of financial regulatory overhaul, experts continue to differ on the role of the Federal Reserve and its powers, explains this CFR Backgrounder.

UNITED STATES: Demonstrators in downtown Manhattan, known as the Occupy Wall Street (CNN)protesters, have gained the support of labor unions and prompted similar populist protests throughout the country.

EUROPE

IMF Calls for Recapitalization of Europe's Banks

Amid eurozone policy inaction over Greece's sovereign debt and growing fears of contagion (FT) to Europe's financial sector, the International Monetary Fund called on EU leaders to recapitalize the continent's banks in order to avoid a new credit crunch.

While Greece has failed to meet the budget requirements mandated by the EU and the IMF, experts say eurozone leaders will likely continue to bailout the country because the costs of letting it go are far greater, explains this CFR Analysis Brief.

ITALY: Credit rating agency Moody's downgraded Italy's debt (Guardian) by three notches in a sign that sovereign debt contagion is continuing to envelop the eurozone.

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